AN ASSESSMENT OF NIGERIA'S IMPLEMENTATION OF IT'S ORIGINAL NDC AND IMPLICATION FOR THE REVISED VERSION

 As a Party to the Paris Agreement of 2015, Nigeria committed to reducing its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, submitting an ambitious Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) in the run up to the Paris Climate Conference in 2015.

With the end of the first cycle of the NDC and the launch of a process for NDC revision, a meeting was organized by Center for Climatic Change and Development, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu Alike in collaboration with World Resources institute, Washington DC and Federal Ministry of Environment Nigeria via zoom on the 16th of December, 2020. 

The meeting's host facilitator was Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke - Director, Center for Climatic Change & Development - AE-FUNAI and speakers in attendance were Prof. Magnus C. Onuoha, Dr. Richard Okibe and Dr. Austine Sadiqi Okoh. 

The meeting served as an opportunity to  analyze the extent of the implementation of the original NDC and also looked at the ambition and intent of the revised NDC. They advocated for the establishment of an NDC implementation index, with clear monitoring and tracking tools to be coordinated by a Just Transition Taskforce (JTT) so as to enable the government and the Nigerian public at large monitor and assess NDC implementation going forward

Key areas of Discussion in the meeting are:

The NDC targeted climate action in five priority sectors, as follows:

Energy: The focus here was on decentralized renewable, especially off-grid solar PV and multi-cycle power stations, to give energy efficiency of 2% per year (30% by 2030) and to introduce the use of natural gas rather than liquid fuels;

Oil and Gas: The goal was to end gas flaring through improved enforcement of gas flaring restrictions;

Agriculture: The objective was to promote climate-smart agriculture and reforestation and to stop the use of charcoal for household cooking and heating;

Transport: The emphasis was to achieve modal shift from air to high-speed rail, moving freight to rail, upgrading roads and improving urban transit. Other measures included toll roads/road pricing, increasing use of CNG and reforming petrol/diesel subsidies; Commerce and Industry: The emphasis was on benchmarking technology standards against international best practice for industrial energy usage, along with promoting the adoption of green technology in industries.

It was deliberated in the meeting that without any form of intervention, it was envisaged that the

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emission across these five priority sectors would grow 114% by 2030 to around 900 metric tonnes – around 3.4 tonnes per capita emissions. This scenario assumes economic growth at 5% per year. It also assumes population growth of about 2.5% per year. The scenarios also assume that all Nigerians will have access to electricity (on-grid or off-grid) and that industry will triple in size.

Further discussed in the meeting was that the 2015 NDC also highlights the importance of keeping major fast-growing cities (Lagos, Kano, and Abuja) livable. In addition, the document states that all climate measures need to be assessed against their ability to bring social inclusion and to be culturally and gender appropriate, as well as to improve livelihood security, increase resilience and reduce emissions. The 2015 NDC contains key data about emission status (MtCo2eq) across the five priority sectors and this data may enable an assessment of the extent of implementation in line with the transparency, accuracy, comparability, consistency and completeness (TACCC) reporting methodology of UNFCCC. As was also the case in 2015 NDC, Nigeria has not yet developed full GHG inventory (GHGI).

Assessment of the extent of the implementation were in the following key areas: 

Electricity Generation (Power)

Industrial Process and Product Use (IPPU) etc

Not left out is the the tiered approach to monitoring NDC sector action plans, the Climate finance status Nigeria and NDC implementation gap analysis.

It was concluded that the Paris Agreement and the attendant Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) tool remains a turning point in countries’ efforts to achieve mitigation and reach adaptation milestones in order to curb the monster called Climate Change. A detailed and results-oriented delivery of activities in the NDC implementation index for Nigeria and the consequent monitoring and tracking of efforts will go a long way towards positioning the country on the path towards a low-carbon and resource-efficient trajectory. This will also allow Nigeria to seize the moment and take advantage of the opportunity arising from the emerging New Market Mechanism (NMM) of the Paris Agreement, which is expected to take off in 2023. Attendant opportunities for technology transfer, global partnership, capacity development, funding and similar will then follow.